Impacts: Climate change and global ecology
Liza Storey, International Global Change Centre, IGCC, University of Waikato.

Liza Storey is an ecologist. Her PhD thesis (2009) undertook an assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use changes on the distribution of Tradescantia fluminensis (Vell.) in New Zealand. Liza has a Master of Science in Marine Science and undertook a thesis looking at mapping seagrass distribution, on a barrier reef in Fiji. She has expertise with integrated assessment of impacts and vulnerability with climate change.

Abstract
Climate change is already causing observed change to our planet's ecology. Amphibians, warm-water corals, and migratory birds are the groups most at risk (IUCN, 2008). Not only will climate change contribute to a decline in the number of species on Earth, but it is also modifying ecological, physiological and seasonal timing of processes, and species interactions. While significant and valuable steps are being taken, in particular, to increase the number of protected areas globally, this is insufficient in itself to stem the tide of species decline (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010).

In addition to the impacts on wild populations, climate change will impact on commercial and cultivated crops, and other species harvested for human food consumption, as well as pests and diseases. While increased average temperatures and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will provide some benefits to productivity in mid to high latitudes, this needs to be couched with the impacts projected for a significant increase in extreme events like drought, and other interacting pressures (IPCC, 2007) on ecosystems. Increased atmospheric CO2 will also impact marine systems more negatively (IPCC, 2007).

In most situations, climate change will not act independently on species or ecosystems; rather it will interact with other pressures, to alter the condition of ecosystems for species survival (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment , 2005), and to shift the distribution of species geographically (Walther et al., 2002). In most cases studied to date, species are not able to migrate to more suitable habitats fast enough to keep pace with current climate change, and in the future this is expected to continue. Moreover, natural migration will be increasingly impeded due to more fragmentation of habitats through land use changes such as agricultural expansion.

This talk will describe various observed situations where climate change is currently acting on species and ecosystems, in conjunction with other environmental and human pressures. Examples include: species susceptibility to extinction risks, coral bleaching, salmon spawning reductions, sea ice reductions and polar bears, invasive pest and disease outbreaks such as the mountain pine beetle devastating some North American forests, and risks from invasive species in New Zealand. Helping species and ecosystems adapt to climate change requires many coordinated responses at different scales, across many institutions and in conjunction with communities throughout the world.

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